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Property Crime Surge in Humboldt, Kansas: A Paradoxical Trend Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Humboldt, located in Kansas, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the years, alongside fluctuations in its population. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes increased from 21 to 31, representing a 47.62% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 2,772 in 2010 to 2,523 in 2018, a 9% decline.
Burglary rates in the city remained stable at 4 incidents in both 2010 and 2018. However, when considering the population change, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.44 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2018, a 10.42% rise. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary incidents grew from 0.03% to 0.05% during this period, indicating a slight increase in its share of burglaries relative to the state.
Larceny-theft saw a significant increase, rising from 16 incidents in 2010 to 22 in 2018, a 37.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 5.77 to 8.72, a substantial 51.13% increase. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft incidents doubled from 0.03% to 0.06%, suggesting a growing problem relative to other areas in the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed the most dramatic increase, jumping from 1 incident in 2010 to 5 in 2018, a 400% rise. The rate per 1,000 people surged from 0.36 to 1.98, a 450% increase. The city's share of state-wide motor vehicle thefts rose significantly from 0.02% to 0.09%, indicating a disproportionate growth in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson incidents remained at zero for both 2010 and 2018, with no contribution to state-wide arson statistics. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes coincides with a period of fluctuating median income. In 2013, the median income was $45,704, which decreased to $44,935 in 2018, a 1.68% drop. This slight decline in economic conditions may have contributed to the rise in property crimes.
The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 77% in 2013 to 75% in 2018. This minor change in home ownership doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with the increase in property crimes.
Race distribution showed minimal changes, with the white population decreasing slightly from 87% in 2013 to 87% in 2018, while the Hispanic population decreased from 8% to 7%. The stability in racial demographics suggests that changes in property crime rates are likely influenced by other factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes if current trends persist. The model suggests that by 2029, the city may experience around 45-50 property crimes annually, with larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft likely to see the most significant increases.
In summary, Humboldt has faced a growing challenge with property crimes, particularly in larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The disproportionate increase in these crimes relative to state averages suggests a need for targeted interventions. While demographic factors like race and home ownership have remained relatively stable, the slight decline in median income may be a contributing factor to the rise in property crimes. As the city looks towards the future, addressing these trends through community-based initiatives and targeted law enforcement strategies will be crucial in curbing the projected increase in property crime rates.
