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Property Crime Surge in Beeville, Texas: A Decade of Shifting Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Beeville, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small city fluctuated significantly, starting at 341 in 2010 and ending at 709 in 2022, representing a 107.9% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 18,347 in 2010 to 17,084 in 2022, a 6.9% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic upward trend, particularly in recent years. In 2010, there were 86 burglaries, which dropped to a low of 43 in 2012. However, by 2022, this number had skyrocketed to 426, a 395.3% increase from 2010. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate rose from 4.69 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 24.94 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also increased substantially, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.54% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more volatility. From 247 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 373 in 2015 before declining to 252 in 2022, representing a modest 2% increase over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 13.46 in 2010 to 14.75 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases rose from 0.04% to 0.06% during this time, suggesting a relatively stable trend compared to state levels.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has seen a significant increase. From just 8 cases in 2010, it rose to 34 in 2021 and slightly decreased to 31 in 2022, marking a 287.5% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.44 in 2010 to 1.81 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.04%, indicating a faster growth rate than the state average.
Arson cases, while low in number, have shown an upward trend. From 3 cases in 2010, the number remained relatively stable until 2020 when it spiked to 6 cases, before settling at 3 cases again in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively constant, from 0.16 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.07% to 0.14%, suggesting a growing problem relative to state trends.
A strong correlation exists between the rise in property crimes and changes in the racial composition of the city. As the Hispanic population increased from 62% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be an inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. For instance, in 2018, when the median income dropped to $41,754, property crimes spiked to 390 cases, up from 301 the previous year.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued upward trajectory. By 2029, five years from now, total property crimes could potentially reach 1,000 cases annually if current trends persist. Burglaries are expected to contribute most significantly to this increase, potentially reaching 600 cases per year.
In summary, Beeville has experienced a concerning rise in property crimes, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, despite a declining population. This trend, coupled with demographic shifts and economic factors, presents significant challenges for local law enforcement and community leaders. The disproportionate increase in the city's share of state crime statistics underscores the need for targeted interventions to address these rising crime rates effectively.
