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Property Crime Surge in Arvada, Colorado: A Decade of Change Amidst Affluence
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arvada, Colorado, a vibrant city located northwest of Denver, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Arvada increased by 36.7%, rising from 2,716 to 3,712 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 13.1%, from 107,604 to 121,672 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 386 burglaries, which decreased to 316 in 2019, but then surged to 436 in 2022. This represents a 13% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 3.59 in 2010 to 3.58 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.86% in 2010 to 2.24% in 2022, suggesting that Arvada's burglary problem has grown relative to the rest of Colorado.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a significant increase of 16% from 2,123 incidents in 2010 to 2,464 in 2022. Despite this rise, the rate per 1,000 people increased only marginally from 19.73 to 20.25 over the same period, due to population growth. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 2.66% to 2.47%, indicating that this crime type may be growing faster in other parts of Colorado.
Motor vehicle theft has shown the most dramatic increase among property crimes in the city. The number of incidents nearly quadrupled from 207 in 2010 to 812 in 2022, a 292% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose sharply from 1.92 to 6.67. Additionally, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 2.19% to 1.98%, suggesting that while this crime has surged locally, it may be an even greater problem elsewhere in the state.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but show an overall increase from 14 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022, a 71% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.13 to 0.20. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.76% to 2.09%, indicating that arson has become a more significant issue in Arvada relative to the rest of Colorado.
There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in property crimes and the rise in median income in the city. As the median income grew from $69,581 in 2013 to $110,100 in 2022, a 58% increase, property crimes also saw a substantial rise. This could suggest that as the city became more affluent, it may have become a more attractive target for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Arvada could see total property crimes reach approximately 4,500 incidents annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continuation of the average annual growth rate observed between 2010 and 2022.
In summary, Arvada has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, with motor vehicle theft showing the most alarming growth. While population growth has partially offset the per capita increases in some crime categories, the overall trend suggests that property crime is outpacing population growth. The correlation with rising median incomes indicates that the city's increasing affluence may be attracting more property crime. As Arvada continues to grow and develop, addressing these crime trends will likely be a key challenge for local law enforcement and community leaders.
