Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively low and inconsistent over the years. In 2010, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. The highest number recorded was 3 incidents in 2015, with the rate per 1,000 residents peaking at 0.51 that year. By 2022, motor vehicle theft had returned to zero incidents. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics has remained minimal, never exceeding 0.03% throughout the period. This low and decreasing trend in motor vehicle thefts suggests effective deterrence measures or a generally low risk for this type of crime in the area.

Arson incidents in the city have been consistently reported as zero from 2010 to 2022. Consequently, the arson rate per 1,000 residents and the city's contribution to state-wide arson statistics have remained at 0% throughout this period. This absence of arson cases indicates a very low fire-related crime risk in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's consistently high median income, which ranged from $90,955 in 2017 to $113,330 in 2021, appears to have a strong negative correlation with property crime rates. As the median income increased, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, the high percentage of owner-occupied housing, which increased from 84% in 2016 to 93% in 2022, correlates with lower property crime rates. This suggests that a stable, affluent community with high home ownership rates may contribute to lower property crime incidence.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Given the already low crime numbers, it's projected that the city will maintain very low property crime rates, potentially averaging between 2 to 5 incidents per year. However, it's important to note that with such low numbers, small fluctuations can appear as significant percentage changes.

In summary, Kirtland has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a safe, stable community. The strong correlations between high median income, high home ownership rates, and low crime rates suggest that the city's socioeconomic characteristics play a significant role in maintaining its low crime environment. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will likely depend on continuing the community and law enforcement practices that have contributed to this success.