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Property Crime Plummets: Harrisburg, Illinois Sees Dramatic 94.6% Reduction Over Decade
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Harrisburg, Illinois, a small city with a rich history in southern Illinois, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 186 in 2012 to just 10 in 2022, representing a 94.6% reduction. This dramatic change occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 11,819 in 2012 to 10,906 in 2022, a 7.7% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2012, there were 127 burglaries, which dropped to just 1 in 2022, marking a 99.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.75 per 1,000 people in 2012 to 0.09 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.4% in 2018 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made substantial progress in reducing burglaries, the decline may have been even more pronounced compared to state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. From 55 cases in 2012, the number rose to a peak of 207 in 2018 before drastically falling to 9 in 2022, an overall decrease of 83.6%. The rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, starting at 4.65 in 2012, peaking at 18.75 in 2018, and then dropping to 0.83 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures increased from 0.03% in 2012 to 0.15% in 2018, before declining to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in recent years relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility. From 4 incidents in 2012, it peaked at 20 in 2020 before dropping to 0 in 2022. This translates to a rate that increased from 0.34 per 1,000 people in 2012 to 1.82 per 1,000 in 2020, then fell to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2012 to 0.12% in 2020, before falling to 0% in 2022, suggesting recent successful efforts in curbing this type of crime.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with a maximum of 2 incidents reported in 2012 and 2018, and dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.18 (in 2018) and fell to 0 by 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures fluctuated between 0% and 0.19%, indicating that arson has not been a significant issue for the city relative to other crimes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $37,537 in 2013 to $41,800 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable around 70% during this period, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, Harrisburg may see further reductions in property crimes. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts could potentially remain at or near zero, while larceny-theft might stabilize at very low levels, possibly around 5-7 incidents per year. However, these projections assume continued effectiveness of current crime prevention strategies and stable socioeconomic conditions.
In conclusion, Harrisburg has made remarkable progress in reducing property crimes over the past decade. The significant decreases across all categories of property crime, particularly in recent years, suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. As the city continues to address socioeconomic factors like income levels and home ownership, it is well-positioned to maintain these low crime rates, potentially serving as a model for other small cities facing similar challenges.
