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Property Crime in Catron, Missouri: Limited Data Hinders Trend Analysis
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Catron, a small town in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 488 in 2022, this compact community of just 0.37 square miles has seen fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. The available data for property crime is limited, with only one recorded incident in 2011, making it challenging to draw comprehensive conclusions about long-term trends.
In 2011, the sole property crime reported was a burglary. This single incident translates to a rate of approximately 1.86 burglaries per 1,000 residents, based on the population of 537 that year. The burglary represented 100% of the town's property crime for that year. However, it's important to note that this isolated incident does not provide enough information to establish a trend or make meaningful comparisons to state-level crime rates.
Due to the lack of data for larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson, it's not possible to analyze trends for these specific crime categories. The absence of reported incidents in these areas could suggest either a very low crime rate or potential underreporting. Without additional data points, it would be speculative to draw conclusions about these crime types or their relationship to population trends.
When examining potential correlations between property crime and other demographic factors, the limited crime data makes it difficult to establish strong connections. However, we can observe some interesting demographic trends that might provide context for the town's overall development.
The population of Catron has fluctuated significantly over the years, reaching a peak of 743 in 2016 before declining to 488 in 2022. This represents a population density change from 1,998 people per square mile in 2016 to 1,312 in 2022. Concurrently, the median income has shown a general upward trend, increasing from $32,720 in 2013 to $52,500 in 2022, representing a 60.5% increase over this period.
Homeownership rates have also seen notable changes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 72% in 2016 to 91% in 2022, suggesting a shift towards a more stable, resident-owned community. This could potentially have implications for community engagement and crime prevention, although the direct impact cannot be determined without more comprehensive crime data.
Racial demographics have remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority, ranging from 90% to 96% between 2013 and 2022. The black population saw some fluctuation, peaking at 9% in 2015 and 2017 before decreasing to 2% in 2022.
Given the limited historical data on property crime, applying predictive models for future trends would not yield reliable results. However, if we consider the town's demographic trends, we might cautiously speculate that the stable racial composition, increasing homeownership rates, and rising median income could contribute to maintaining low crime rates, assuming the single reported burglary in 2011 was indeed representative of a low overall crime rate.
In summary, while Catron's property crime data is too limited to draw definitive conclusions or make accurate predictions, the town's demographic trends suggest a community that has experienced economic growth and increased homeownership. These factors, combined with the small, close-knit nature of the community, could potentially contribute to maintaining public safety. However, more comprehensive and consistent crime reporting would be necessary to fully understand and predict property crime trends in Catron.
