Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a fluctuating but overall decreasing trend. From 23 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 14 in 2020, a 39.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.5 in 2010 to 0.9 in 2020. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, peaking at 0.21% in 2015 before dropping to 0.10% in 2020. This suggests that while the city made progress in reducing vehicle thefts, the improvements were not consistently better than the state average.

Arson cases in the city showed significant volatility. From 6 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 23 in 2014 before dropping to 2 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.38 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated dramatically, reaching a high of 1.98% in 2018 before dropping to 0.31% in 2020. This volatility suggests that arson incidents, while relatively rare, can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they occur.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a period of increasing median income in the city, rising from $36,705 in 2013 to $46,577 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, around 60%, which may have contributed to community stability and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crimes, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 130-140 annual incidents. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain relatively low, potentially averaging 15-20 cases per year. Arson cases, given their volatility, are harder to predict but are likely to remain in the single digits annually.

In summary, Greenville has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade. The consistent decrease across all categories of property crime, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, points to effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. The correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates suggests that economic development may play a crucial role in maintaining this positive trend. As the city moves forward, maintaining these gains while addressing the occasional spikes in certain crime categories will be key to ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.