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Property Crime Decline in Youngstown: A Decade of Progress Amidst Industrial Legacy
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Youngstown, Ohio, a city with a rich industrial history, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Youngstown decreased by 61.2%, from 4,431 to 1,721. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a slight population decline of 2.1%, from 66,835 in 2010 to 65,479 in 2019 (the last year with available population data).
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decrease over time. In 2010, there were 2,101 reported burglaries, which dropped to 447 by 2022, representing a 78.7% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 31.4 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 6.8 per 1,000 in 2019. Despite this significant reduction, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 2.06% and 3.36% of Ohio's total burglaries. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, it continues to face challenges proportional to its size within the state.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. The number of reported cases decreased from 1,806 in 2010 to 1,004 in 2022, a 44.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 27.0 in 2010 to 15.3 in 2019. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft cases remained relatively low, ranging from 0.93% to 1.41%, indicating that this type of crime in Youngstown is not disproportionately high compared to the rest of Ohio.
Motor vehicle theft in Youngstown showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 524 cases in 2010, it dropped to 270 in 2022, a 48.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.8 in 2010 to 3.0 in 2019. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts varied between 1.09% and 3.13%, suggesting that while improvements have been made, this remains an area of concern relative to state levels.
Arson cases in Youngstown have shown significant volatility. From 242 cases in 2010, it dropped dramatically to 15 in 2022, a 93.8% decrease. However, there were significant spikes in between, such as 263 cases in 2012. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.6 in 2010 to 0.2 in 2019. The city's share of state-wide arson cases has been particularly high at times, reaching 15.03% in 2018, indicating that arson has been a significant issue for the city relative to the rest of Ohio.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between the decline in property crimes and the slight increase in median income. From 2013 to 2019, median income rose from $24,767 to $29,143, while property crimes continued to decrease. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Youngstown could see a further reduction of approximately 20-25% in overall property crimes if current trends continue. This would bring the total number of property crimes to around 1,300-1,400 annually.
In summary, Youngstown has made significant strides in reducing property crimes across all categories over the past decade. The most dramatic improvements have been in burglary and arson rates, although arson remains a concern due to its high proportion of state-wide cases. The city's efforts to combat property crime, possibly coupled with economic improvements, have yielded positive results. However, continued focus on reducing motor vehicle thefts and maintaining the downward trend in other categories will be crucial for sustained improvement in Youngstown's public safety landscape.
