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Property Crime Decline in Wilmington, Illinois: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wilmington, Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 117 in 2010 to 47 in 2022, representing a 59.8% reduction. This substantial decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling from 7,906 in 2010 to 7,416 in 2022, a 6.2% reduction.
Analyzing burglary trends reveals a notable fluctuation over time. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries reported, which increased to 16 in 2013 before declining to 10 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.14 in 2010 to 2.07 in 2013, then decreased to 1.35 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a dramatic decrease over the study period. From 95 incidents in 2010, it dropped to just 34 in 2022, a 64.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.02 in 2010 to 4.58 in 2022. Despite this significant local decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a statewide reduction in this crime category.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated considerably. From 13 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2011, then varied between 2 and 8 incidents annually, settling at 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.64 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a more rapid decrease in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2010 and no reported cases in subsequent years. This single incident represented 0.1% of state arsons in 2010, but the lack of incidents thereafter suggests effective prevention or reporting changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a slight decrease in population density, from 572 people per square mile in 2010 to 537 in 2022. Additionally, there was a notable increase in median income from $60,459 in 2019 to $64,758 in 2022, which could potentially contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we might expect total property crimes to decrease by another 10-15% by 2029, potentially reaching around 40 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Wilmington has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. This trend, particularly notable in larceny-theft and burglary reductions, suggests effective crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic conditions. The city's improving economic indicators, such as rising median income, may have contributed to this positive trend. As the city moves forward, maintaining these crime reduction strategies while addressing any emerging challenges will be crucial for sustaining and potentially improving upon these positive trends in property crime rates.
