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Property Crime Decline in Wellsville, Kansas: A 13-Year Analysis
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wellsville, located in Kansas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 55 to 14, representing a 74.5% reduction. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, increasing from 2,367 in 2010 to 2,439 in 2022, a 3% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 2 in 2022, marking an 85.7% decrease. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.91 in 2010 to 0.82 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2017 before declining to 0.03% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or enhanced law enforcement efforts in the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decrease. The number of incidents dropped from 40 in 2010 to 12 in 2022, a 70% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.9 in 2010 to 4.92 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases remained relatively low, ranging from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This downward trend in larceny theft indicates a potentially safer environment for residents and businesses.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low throughout the period, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 3 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest in 2021 at 1.23 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.11% in 2021. These low numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only four reported incidents over the 13-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.41 (in 2010). The city's contribution to state arson cases was highest in 2020 at 0.71%, but generally remained low or non-existent in most years. The infrequency of arson cases indicates that it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $70,275 in 2013 to $75,816 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between income levels and property crime occurrences. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership from 76% in 2013 to 69% in 2022 did not appear to negatively impact property crime rates, which continued to decline during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data, we can estimate that total property crimes may further decrease by approximately 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 11-12 incidents per year. However, this projection assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain relatively stable.
In summary, Wellsville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft rates. The community has maintained low levels of motor vehicle theft and arson. These trends, coupled with increasing median income, suggest a potentially improving quality of life for residents. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its inhabitants.
