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Property Crime Decline in Toms River: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Toms River, a city in New Jersey, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically from 2,849 to 1,038, representing a 63.6% reduction. This substantial decrease occurred alongside a population growth of 6.3%, from 89,390 in 2010 to 95,021 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 547 burglaries, which decreased to 104 in 2022, marking an 81% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.12 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.09 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but ultimately decreased from 3.17% in 2010 to 2.18% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures and law enforcement effectiveness in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decline. In 2010, there were 2,274 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 871 in 2022, a 61.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 25.44 in 2010 to 9.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 4.8% in 2010 to 2.41% in 2022. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex pattern. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, starting at 28 in 2010, dropping to a low of 22 in 2014, and then rising to 63 in 2022. Despite this recent increase, the overall rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively low, rising slightly from 0.31 in 2010 to 0.66 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.96% in 2022, suggesting a need for targeted prevention strategies in this area.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear long-term trend. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 0 in 2020 to a high of 10 in 2011. In 2022, there were 4 arson cases, representing 2.76% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low throughout the period, reaching 0.04 in 2022. While arson does not appear to be a major concern, continued vigilance is necessary.
A strong correlation exists between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $72,964 in 2013 to $92,295 in 2022, property crimes declined. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates, with ownership rates increasing from 78% in 2013 to 84% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its recent upward trend, necessitating focused prevention efforts. Arson cases are projected to remain low but unpredictable.
In summary, Toms River has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's improved economic conditions and increased home ownership appear to have played crucial roles in this positive trend. While challenges remain, especially in addressing motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with lower property crime rates. This progress demonstrates the effectiveness of local law enforcement and community initiatives in creating a more secure environment for residents.
