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Property Crime Decline in Thunderbolt, Georgia: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thunderbolt, a small city in Georgia covering 1.34 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly by 50.48%, from 105 to 52 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 16.58%, from 2,768 to 3,227 residents, creating an interesting dynamic between crime rates and demographic shifts.
Burglary trends in the city show a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 30 burglaries, which dropped to just 6 in 2022, representing an 80% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.84 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.86 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.08% in 2010, dropping to a low of 0.03% in 2016, and then rising slightly to 0.06% by 2022. This overall decline in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies within the community.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 66 larceny thefts, which decreased to 40 in 2022, a 39.39% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 23.84 in 2010 to 12.39 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.03% and 0.08% throughout the period. This decline in larceny thefts, while less dramatic than burglaries, still indicates a positive trend in overall property crime reduction.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more volatile. In 2010, there were 9 such thefts, which decreased to a low of 2 in 2021 before rising to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.25 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease in numbers, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively high, ranging from 0.02% to 0.12% over the years. This suggests that while the city improved its own motor vehicle theft situation, it remained a notable contributor to state totals in some years.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This lack of arson cases suggests either effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting of such incidents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,061 per square mile in 2010 to 2,402 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a weak inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, in 2015, when the median income peaked at $63,567, property crimes were relatively high at 99 incidents. Conversely, in 2019, with a lower median income of $46,722, property crimes dropped to 30 incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crimes. Based on the recent uptick from 29 incidents in 2020 to 52 in 2022, the model predicts that property crimes may range between 50-60 incidents annually by 2029, assuming current socioeconomic conditions persist.
In summary, Thunderbolt has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. The city's ability to decrease crime rates while experiencing population growth is commendable. However, the recent slight increase in property crimes and the predicted stabilization suggest that continued vigilance and proactive measures will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
