Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but shows an overall decrease. From 4 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 2 in 2022, a 50% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.16 in 2010 to 0.60 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction was more significant than the state-wide trend.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and rare. There were no reported arsons in most years, with only one case each reported in 2015, 2017, and 2018. This translates to a rate of 0.28 per 1,000 residents in those years. The city's contribution to state arson figures was 0.17% in 2015 and 2017, and 0.20% in 2018, showing that despite the low numbers, these incidents represented a noticeable portion of state arson cases when they occurred.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $33,039 in 2015 to $41,451 in 2022, property crimes decreased from 38 to 14 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 56% in 2015 to 67% in 2022, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes, which could indicate a link between stable housing and lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decline over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 8-10 incidents per year, with burglaries and larceny-thefts seeing the most significant reductions. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 cases annually. Arson incidents are likely to remain rare, with potentially no cases in most years.

In conclusion, South Pittsburg has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the rarity of arson incidents, paint a picture of a community that has become increasingly safer. These positive trends, possibly influenced by rising incomes and increased home ownership, suggest a promising outlook for the city's safety and quality of life in the coming years.