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Property Crime Decline in Senath, Missouri: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Senath, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly by 79.3%, from 29 incidents to 6. This dramatic reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 5.5% from 2,233 in 2011 to 2,117 in 2020.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable fluctuation. In 2011, there were 8 burglaries reported, which decreased to 1 in 2013, before rising again to 6 in 2016, 2017, and 2020. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents changed from 3.58 in 2011 to 2.83 in 2020. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease in burglaries, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.04% in 2020, indicating a potentially slower decline compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a marked decline over the years. From 19 cases in 2011, the number dropped to 9 in 2016, further decreasing to 6 in 2017, and finally to 0 reported cases in 2020. This represents a 100% decrease over the period. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fell from 8.51 in 2011 to 0 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases also decreased from 0.02% in 2011 to 0% in 2020, suggesting a more rapid decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 2 incidents in 2011, it increased slightly to 3 in 2016, then decreased back to 2 in 2017, before reaching 0 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents changed from 0.90 in 2011 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.01% from 2011 to 2017, dropping to 0% in 2020.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There was 1 reported case in both 2011 and 2012, followed by no cases until 2020, when another single case was reported. The arson rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable at around 0.45 in years with reported cases. Notably, the city's contribution to state arson cases was comparatively high, at 0.11% in 2011 and 0.13% in 2020, despite the low absolute numbers.
A strong correlation can be observed between the overall decline in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $26,255 in 2013 to $40,346 in 2020, an increase of 53.7%, the total number of property crimes decreased by 70% in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Senath could potentially see a further reduction in overall property crimes. The burglary rate might stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft could remain at very low levels or potentially reach zero consistently. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic but infrequent.
In summary, Senath has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny-theft. This positive trend has occurred alongside an increase in median income, suggesting a potential link between economic improvement and crime reduction. While the city's share of state burglaries has slightly increased, other property crimes have decreased both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals. These trends paint a picture of a city that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and reducing property crime, potentially setting an example for other small cities in Missouri and beyond.
