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Property Crime Decline in Pilot Grove, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pilot Grove, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly by 84.4%, from 32 incidents to 5. During this same period, the population experienced fluctuations, ultimately decreasing by 9.5% from 1,025 in 2010 to 928 in 2020.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 5 burglary incidents, which decreased to zero by 2020. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary cases. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.88 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0% in 2020, indicating a substantial improvement in this area of property crime relative to the rest of Missouri.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, there were 25 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 3 by 2020, representing an 88% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people fell from 24.39 in 2010 to 3.23 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0% in 2020, suggesting a marked improvement in this category relative to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 2 motor vehicle thefts, which remained at 2 in 2020. However, due to the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 1.95 in 2010 to 2.16 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2020.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only one incident reported in 2010 and none in subsequent years. This represents a 100% decrease in arson cases. The arson rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.98 in 2010 to 0 in 2020. The city's contribution to state arson cases also decreased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0% in 2020.
A strong correlation appears to exist between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,436 per square mile in 2010 to 2,205 per square mile in 2020, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime incidents. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $44,380 in 2013 to $52,520 in 2020, coinciding with the overall decline in property crime incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the city will continue to see a slight decrease in overall property crime incidents. Burglary and arson rates are expected to remain at or near zero, while larceny-theft may stabilize around 2-3 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft could potentially see a slight increase, possibly reaching 3-4 incidents annually by 2029.
In summary, Pilot Grove has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and arson, coupled with stable motor vehicle theft rates, suggest effective crime prevention strategies and community engagement. These trends, if maintained, position the city favorably for continued low property crime rates in the coming years, contributing to an enhanced quality of life for its residents.
