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Property Crime Decline in Orland, California: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Orland, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly by 56.95%, from 223 to 96 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 8.87%, from 11,488 in 2010 to 12,507 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 68 burglaries, which dropped to just 9 in 2022, representing an 86.76% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.92 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.72 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglary.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts fell from 111 in 2010 to 61 in 2022, a 45.05% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 9.66 in 2010 to 4.88 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period. This trend suggests a general improvement in property security or changes in local economic conditions affecting theft opportunities.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. There were 44 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 26 in 2022, a 40.91% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.83 in 2010 to 2.08 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of thefts decreased, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02-0.03% throughout most of the period. This could indicate that the city's improvements in this area are in line with statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low in number. The highest recorded number was 7 cases in 2012, representing 0.11% of state arson cases. By 2022, no arson cases were reported. The fluctuation in arson cases, given their low numbers, makes it difficult to discern a clear trend, but the overall direction appears to be towards fewer incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $43,601 in 2013 to $53,221 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 175 to 96. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Orland are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes reduce further to around 70-80 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially dropping to single digits annually, larceny-thefts hovering around 50 cases, and motor vehicle thefts stabilizing at 20-25 incidents.
In summary, Orland has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. This positive trend, particularly notable in burglary and larceny-theft reductions, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and possibly improving socioeconomic conditions. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these downward crime trends will be crucial for the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
