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Property Crime Decline in Notasulga: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Notasulga, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small community fluctuated significantly, declining from 59 in 2010 to just 7 in 2022, representing an 88.1% decrease. This substantial reduction in property crime occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the number of residents falling from 2,521 in 2010 to 2,254 in 2022, a 10.6% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked downward trend. In 2010, there were 3 reported burglaries, which peaked at 55 in 2011 before steadily declining to zero reported cases in 2022. This represents a 100% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.19 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures also fluctuated, peaking at 0.15% in 2011 before dropping to 0% in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or changes in local policing strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased over time. From 53 cases in 2010, the number dropped to just 3 in 2022, a 94.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.02 in 2010 to 1.33 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This substantial decline in petty theft could indicate improved community vigilance or economic factors reducing opportunistic crime.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. Starting with 3 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 12 in 2012 before settling at 4 in 2022, representing a 33.3% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.19 in 2010 to 1.77 in 2022. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures rose from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting this remains an area of concern despite overall property crime reductions.
Arson data for the city is limited, with most years showing no reported cases. However, in 2021, there was 1 reported arson case, accounting for 0.76% of state arson incidents that year. This isolated incident does not establish a trend but warrants attention in future crime prevention strategies.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a period of decreasing population density, which fell from 180 per square mile in 2010 to 161 in 2022. Concurrently, median income rose from $32,026 in 2013 to $41,407 in 2022, a 29.3% increase. This suggests a potential link between improving economic conditions and reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline, albeit at a slower rate. Burglary rates are expected to remain very low or at zero. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 2-4 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft may fluctuate between 2-5 cases per year, remaining a focus area for law enforcement.
In summary, Notasulga has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside population decline and rising median incomes, suggests a complex interplay of demographic and economic factors influencing crime rates. While the town has made substantial progress in combating property crime, ongoing vigilance, especially regarding motor vehicle theft, will be crucial in maintaining and improving upon these gains in the coming years.
