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Property Crime Decline in Montgomery, Ohio: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Montgomery, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 204 incidents in 2010 to 121 in 2022, representing a 40.7% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 9.8%, from 14,126 in 2010 to 15,510 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 24 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 3 in 2022, a reduction of 87.5%. When adjusted for population, this translates to a drop from 1.70 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.19 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This significant decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, while still the most common property crime, has also seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 175 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 110 in 2022, a 37.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.39 in 2010 to 7.09 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing larceny-theft, its improvements are in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents decreased from 5 in 2010 to 4 in 2020, but then sharply increased to 8 in 2022. This represents a 60% increase over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a growing concern in this area relative to state trends.
Arson incidents have been sporadic and relatively low throughout the period. There were no reported arsons in most years, with occasional incidents in 2011 (2 cases), 2012 (3 cases), and 2022 (1 case). The rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state arsons fluctuated accordingly, with the highest being 0.21 per 1,000 and 0.12% of state arsons in 2012.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $107,486 in 2013 to $129,266 in 2021 (a 20.3% increase), total property crimes decreased by 43.3% in the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Population density shows a moderate positive correlation with motor vehicle thefts. As density increased from 2,661 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,922 in 2022, motor vehicle thefts also saw an overall increase, particularly in recent years.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now): 1. Burglaries may continue to decrease, potentially reaching near-zero levels. 2. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its downward trend, possibly reducing to around 80-90 incidents annually. 3. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase, potentially reaching 15-20 incidents per year. 4. Arson incidents are likely to remain sporadic and low, with 0-2 cases per year.
In summary, Montgomery has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and falling crime rates suggests that economic prosperity plays a role in crime reduction. However, the recent uptick in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention and targeted prevention strategies. As the city continues to grow and prosper, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of its residents.
