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Property Crime Decline in Madison, Mississippi: A Study of Affluence and Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Madison, Mississippi, a rapidly growing community, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 269 incidents in 2019 and a low of 119 in 2021. Despite these variations, the overall trend shows a 23% decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022. During this same period, the population grew substantially from 25,776 in 2010 to 30,980 in 2022, representing a 20.2% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries reported, which increased to 20 in 2014 before dropping to 11 in 2022. This represents a 45% decrease from the peak in 2014. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.36 in 2022, showing a relatively stable trend despite population growth. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they became a larger portion of state totals.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, experienced fluctuations but ultimately decreased over the period. From 197 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 251 in 2019 before dropping to 149 in 2022, marking a 24.4% decrease overall. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 7.64 in 2010 to 4.81 in 2022, showing a significant improvement in relative terms. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.59% in 2010 to 1.05% in 2022, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they became a larger portion of state totals.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but volatile. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 12 in 2014 before decreasing to 1 in 2022. This represents a 66.7% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.03 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, from 0.09% in 2010 to a high of 0.58% in 2014, before settling at 0.06% in 2022.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the period from 2010 to 2022, indicating either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $105,802 in 2013 to $124,439 in 2022, coinciding with an overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained consistently high, around 94% from 2013 to 2022, which may contribute to the relatively low and decreasing property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 10-12 incidents annually, larceny-theft may continue to decrease slightly to around 140-145 incidents per year, and motor vehicle thefts are likely to remain in the low single digits. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously as unforeseen factors could influence crime rates.
In summary, Madison has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates when adjusted for population. The city's increasing share of state property crimes, particularly in larceny-theft, suggests that while local crime rates are decreasing, they are doing so at a slower rate than the state average. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and high home ownership rates, paint a picture of a community that is becoming increasingly safe and prosperous.
