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Property Crime Decline in Lincoln, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lincoln, Illinois, a community with a rich history, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased dramatically by 87.3%, from 667 to 85 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 5.7% from 16,140 in 2010 to 15,224 in 2022.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 141 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 17 in 2022, representing a decrease of 87.9%. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.7 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.1 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It started at 0.26% in 2010, peaked at 0.23% in 2013, and then declined to 0.1% by 2022. This suggests that while burglary rates improved locally, the city's progress outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant reduction. The number of incidents decreased from 511 in 2010 to 63 in 2022, a drop of 87.7%. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 31.7 in 2010 to 4.1 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics decreased from 0.3% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction in larceny-theft was more pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a different pattern. While the number of incidents decreased from 15 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated. It started at 0.06% in 2010, peaked at 0.11% in 2014, and then decreased to 0.02% by 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.9 in 2010 to 0.3 in 2022, suggesting an overall improvement in vehicle security or theft prevention.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From 6 cases in 2010, the number dropped to zero in 2019 and 2022. The city's share of state arson cases was notably high at 0.58% in 2010 but decreased to 0% by 2022. This indicates a significant improvement in fire safety or arson prevention measures within the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $47,809 in 2013 to $57,945 in 2022, property crime rates consistently decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, ranging from 62% to 67% between 2013 and 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crime.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates in Lincoln will continue to decrease over the next five years, potentially reaching a low of around 60-70 total incidents by 2029. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and crime prevention efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Lincoln has made remarkable strides in reducing property crime over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for continued community safety and well-being.
