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Property Crime Decline in Keego Harbor: A Decade of Positive Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Keego Harbor, a city in Michigan, has experienced a notable decrease in property crime over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes in the city fell by 50%, from 44 incidents to 22, despite a 5.3% population decrease from 2,926 to 2,771 residents. This trend represents a significant improvement in public safety for the community.
Burglary rates in Keego Harbor have fluctuated but ultimately declined over the years. In 2010, there were 12 reported burglaries, peaking at 13 in 2011 and 2013. By 2022, this number had reduced to 6 incidents. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.1 in 2010 to 2.2 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 0.03% to 0.04%, indicating a potentially slower decline compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in Keego Harbor, showed a marked downward trend. Incidents decreased from 32 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, with a peak of 42 in 2012. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.9 to 5.4 during this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics also decreased from 0.03% to 0.02%, suggesting a faster decline than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Keego Harbor has remained relatively low throughout the studied period. There were no reported incidents in several years, including 2010, 2014, 2015, and 2020. The highest number of motor vehicle thefts was 3, recorded in 2011, 2012, and 2013. In 2022, there was 1 reported incident. The rate per 1,000 residents has fluctuated between 0 and 1, with the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts consistently low, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total.
Arson incidents have been non-existent in Keego Harbor from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. Consequently, the arson rate per 1,000 residents and the city's contribution to state arson statistics have remained at zero.
Analysis of socioeconomic factors reveals interesting correlations with property crime trends in Keego Harbor. As population density increased from 5,905 per square mile in 2010 to 5,592 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased, suggesting that increased density did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, there appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. The median income rose from $45,022 in 2013 to $56,768 in 2022, while property crimes declined, indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates.
Predictive models forecasting property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggest a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on historical data, it is projected that total property crimes could decrease by another 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 18-19 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.
In conclusion, Keego Harbor has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's crime rates have generally improved faster than state averages, particularly for larceny-theft. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in reducing property crimes. These trends, if continued, point towards a potentially safer community in the coming years, with further reductions in property crime rates projected through 2029.
