Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 8 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 6 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.95 to 0.65. Despite this decline, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.03% to 0.08%, suggesting that the city's reduction in this crime was less substantial than the state's overall trend.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. There were 2 cases in 2010, representing 0.17% of state arsons, but no reported cases in most subsequent years, including 2022. This inconsistent pattern makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The reduction in property crimes coincided with a significant increase in median income, rising from $65,211 in 2013 to $75,318 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 67% in 2013 to 76% in 2022. These trends suggest a potential link between improved economic conditions, increased homeownership, and reduced property crime rates.

The racial composition of the city also shifted during this period, with the white population decreasing from 90% in 2013 to 82% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 4% to 11%. This demographic change occurred simultaneously with the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that total property crimes may decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 55-58 incidents annually.

In summary, Indian Harbour Beach has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. This positive trend, particularly notable in burglary and larceny-theft rates, has occurred alongside increases in median income and homeownership. While the city's share of state property crimes has slightly increased in some categories, this is largely due to even more substantial reductions at the state level. These trends paint a picture of a community that has made considerable strides in improving public safety and quality of life for its residents.