Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 17 incidents, which decreased to 11 in 2022, a 35.29% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 1.57 in 2010 to 1.16 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.11% to 0.16% over the years, suggesting that local trends generally aligned with state patterns.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but remain low in absolute numbers. In 2010, there were 2 arsons, which increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.18 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson statistics has been volatile, ranging from 0% to 0.85%, likely due to the low number of incidents making percentages sensitive to small changes.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $32,200 in 2013 to $34,310 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 353 to 143. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.

Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the decline in property crimes and the changing racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 60% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, and the black population increased from 35% to 32%, property crimes also declined. This trend suggests that demographic shifts may influence crime patterns, though causation cannot be inferred without further analysis.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates will likely continue to decrease over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect total property crimes to fall below 100 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially dropping to around 20-25 cases annually, larceny thefts to approximately 60-70 cases, and motor vehicle thefts remaining stable at 10-12 incidents per year.

In summary, Humboldt has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. This trend correlates with rising median incomes and changing demographic patterns. If these trends continue, the city may see further improvements in public safety, potentially enhancing its appeal for residents and businesses alike.