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Property Crime Decline in Hillsborough, NJ: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hillsborough, New Jersey, is a suburban community known for its high median income and diverse population. Over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022, the city has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside population growth. Total property crimes decreased by 52.2%, from 270 in 2010 to 129 in 2022, while the population increased by 10% from 22,849 to 25,136 during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 61 burglaries, which decreased to 19 in 2022, representing a 68.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.67 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.76 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the overall number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. In 2010, the city accounted for 0.35% of state burglaries, which increased to 0.40% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more slowly in Hillsborough compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 203 larceny thefts, which dropped to 97 in 2022, a 52.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 8.88 in 2010 to 3.86 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.43% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny theft reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 6 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 13 in 2022, a 116.7% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022, suggesting a significant rise in this crime category relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 6 arson cases, which decreased to 1 in 2022, an 83.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.26 in 2010 to 0.04 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 1.32% in 2010 to 0.69% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement in arson prevention relative to state trends.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $115,612 in 2013 to $125,704 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime. Additionally, as the Asian population percentage increased from 14% in 2013 to 19% in 2022, property crime rates continued to decline, indicating a possible relationship between changing racial demographics and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglary and larceny theft rates to continue decreasing, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft rates may continue to rise if current trends persist, requiring targeted prevention strategies.
In summary, Hillsborough has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft rates. The increase in motor vehicle thefts stands out as an area of concern. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and changing demographics, paint a picture of a community undergoing positive transformations in terms of public safety, with specific challenges to address in the coming years.
