Motor vehicle theft in Hesston has fluctuated over the years but ultimately showed improvement. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 6 in 2015 before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people went from 0.22 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.15% in 2014 before falling to 0% in 2022. This volatility in motor vehicle theft rates suggests that even small changes in incident numbers can significantly impact the city's statistics due to its relatively small population.

Arson cases in Hesston have been rare, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period: one in 2013 and another in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.23 and 0.26, respectively. Notably, the 2022 incident represented 0.35% of state arson cases, a significant proportion given the city's size. This highlights how a single incident in a small community can dramatically affect its crime statistics relative to the state.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,255 per square mile in 2010 to 1,097 in 2022, property crime rates also generally declined. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 80% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, property crime rates also tended to decrease.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that total property crimes could decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 13-14 incidents annually. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.

In summary, Hesston has experienced a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft rates, even when accounting for population changes, indicate effective crime prevention strategies or improved community safety measures. The city's fluctuating contribution to state crime figures highlights the impact that even small changes in crime numbers can have on a small community's statistics. As Hesston moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing occasional spikes in specific crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.