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Property Crime Decline in Harrison, Ohio: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Harrison, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 311 incidents in 2010 to 151 in 2020, representing a 51.4% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a population growth from 14,520 in 2010 to 16,590 in 2020, a 14.3% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 44 burglaries, which decreased to just 7 in 2020, marking an 84.1% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.03 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2020, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This substantial decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decline. In 2010, there were 264 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 138 in 2020, a 47.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 18.18 in 2010 to 8.32 in 2020. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts actually increased slightly from 0.17% to 0.14%, suggesting that while improvements were made locally, they were not as pronounced as in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents doubled from 3 in 2010 to 6 in 2020, though it's important to note the small absolute numbers. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.21 to 0.36 over this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% to 0.04%, indicating a faster increase compared to state averages. This trend, while concerning, should be interpreted cautiously given the low base numbers.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only sporadic incidents reported between 2013 and 2015. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in 2015, representing 0.19% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The overall decrease in property crimes coincides with a steady increase in median income, from $70,350 in 2013 to $81,641 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the slight decrease in home ownership rates from 84% in 2013 to 83% in 2022 doesn't seem to have negatively impacted property crime trends, contrary to what might be expected.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 5-7 incidents per year, while larceny-theft might see a further reduction to approximately 100-120 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 5-8 incidents per year.
In summary, Harrison has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement, occurring alongside population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic well-being. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state property crimes in some categories indicate areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
