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Property Crime Decline in Harrisburg: Capital City's Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Harrisburg, the capital city of Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 60.8%, from 2,235 to 876 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a modest population growth of 0.53%, from 49,328 in 2010 to 49,587 in 2020.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 666 burglaries reported, which decreased to 173 by 2020, representing a 74% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.5 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.5 per 1,000 in 2020. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased significantly from 2.6% in 2010 to 86.93% in 2020. This stark increase suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it outperformed the state average by a considerable margin.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a declining trend. In 2010, 1,377 cases were reported, which dropped to 579 by 2020, a 57.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 27.9 in 2010 to 11.7 in 2020. Similar to burglary, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 1.77% in 2010 to 77.2% in 2020, indicating a significant improvement relative to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations but an overall decreasing trend. There were 192 incidents in 2010, which reduced to 124 by 2020, a 35.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 3.9 in 2010 to 2.5 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.79% in 2010 to 87.32% in 2020, suggesting a substantial improvement compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city showed variability over the years. There were 28 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 21 in 2020, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.57 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2020. The city's proportion of state arson cases increased from 4.63% in 2010 to 95.45% in 2020, indicating a significant improvement relative to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the declining property crime rates and the increasing median income. As the median income rose from $39,720 in 2013 to $46,479 in 2022, property crime rates consistently decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the changing racial demographics and crime rates. As the Black population percentage decreased from 48% in 2013 to 42% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 18% to 25% during the same period, property crime rates declined.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city could potentially decrease by an additional 30-40% from 2020 levels. This projection suggests that the total number of property crimes could fall to around 525-613 incidents annually.
In summary, Harrisburg has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The city's improvement outpaced the state average, as evidenced by the increasing percentages of state crime figures. The correlations between rising median income, changing racial demographics, and decreasing crime rates suggest that economic and demographic factors may have played a role in this positive trend. If these trends continue, Harrisburg may see further reductions in property crime rates in the coming years, potentially enhancing the overall quality of life for its residents.
