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Property Crime Decline in Hamilton, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hamilton, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes in this small Midwestern city decreased significantly, from 37 to 8 incidents, representing a 78.4% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population contraction, with the city's population falling from 2,449 in 2010 to 1,928 in 2022, a 21.3% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries, which decreased to just 1 in 2021. This represents an 88.9% reduction in raw numbers. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.67 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.54 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally decreased, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2021. This significant drop in burglaries suggests improved security measures or community policing efforts may have been effective.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased substantially over the period. In 2010, there were 25 reported cases, which dropped to 5 in 2021, an 80% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.21 in 2010 to 2.71 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02% for most years before dropping to 0.01% in 2021. This consistent decrease in larceny-theft indicates a positive trend in property protection and community awareness.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but an overall downward trend. From 3 incidents in 2010, it fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 5 in 2014, before settling at 2 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 1.22 in 2010 to 1.08 in 2021. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease in incidents, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04% over the years. This suggests that while the city improved its situation, it kept pace with statewide trends in motor vehicle theft reduction.
Arson cases were rare in Hamilton, with only three reported incidents over the 12-year period: one each in 2013, 2016, and 2020. The sporadic nature of these events makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. However, it's worth noting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of state arson cases, ranging from 0.12% to 0.13%, which is notable for a city of this size.
A strong correlation emerges between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $34,258 in 2013 to $52,717 in 2022, property crimes decreased. Similarly, there's a positive correlation between the increase in homeownership rates (from 59% in 2013 to 67% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes. These trends suggest that improving economic conditions and stable housing situations may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), we can expect the downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we might anticipate total property crimes to stabilize around 5-7 incidents per year by 2029, with burglaries and motor vehicle thefts potentially becoming rare occurrences.
In summary, Hamilton has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates. This positive trend correlates strongly with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, suggesting that economic stability plays a crucial role in crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive economic trends and community engagement could be key to sustaining and further improving its property crime statistics.
