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Property Crime Decline in Hagerstown: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hagerstown, Maryland, a city with a rich history dating back to the 18th century, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Hagerstown decreased by 37.7%, from 1,436 to 894 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 4.6%, from 47,890 to 50,091 residents, presenting an intriguing contrast between crime reduction and population growth.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 303 burglaries, which decreased to 246 by 2022, representing an 18.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.33 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.91 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 2.4% in 2010 to 5.44% in 2022, suggesting a more significant reduction in burglaries at the state level compared to the local trend.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 1,013 larceny thefts, which dropped to 520 by 2022, a 48.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 21.15 in 2010 to 10.38 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures decreased slightly from 2.88% in 2010 to 2.72% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft was relatively consistent with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 120 motor vehicle thefts, which increased slightly to 128 by 2022, a 6.7% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased marginally from 2.51 in 2010 to 2.56 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 1.94% in 2010 to 3.18% in 2022, suggesting that the city's performance in this category was worse than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have shown a dramatic decrease. In 2010, there were 27 arson cases, which dropped to just 2 in 2022, a remarkable 92.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.56 in 2010 to 0.04 in 2022. Despite this significant local improvement, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 5.87% in 2010 to 1.63% in 2022, indicating an even more substantial reduction in arson cases at the state level.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 3,814 people per square mile in 2010 to 3,990 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. The median income rose from $45,900 in 2013 to $49,487 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, which could indicate a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are predicted to remain at very low levels.
In conclusion, Hagerstown has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary, larceny theft, and arson. This positive trend, occurring alongside population growth and increasing median income, suggests an improving quality of life for residents. However, the city's increasing share of state burglaries and motor vehicle thefts indicates areas that may require focused attention in the coming years to maintain and improve upon these encouraging crime reduction trends.
