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Property Crime Decline in Greensburg: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Greensburg, Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 444 to 292, representing a 34.2% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 15,036 to 14,376, a 4.4% decrease. This suggests that the reduction in property crimes outpaced the population decline, indicating a potentially improved safety environment in the city.
Burglary rates in the city showed a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 72 burglaries, which decreased to 46 by 2018, representing a 36.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.79 in 2010 to 3.20 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2018, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while burglaries decreased in Greensburg, they may have decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 365 in 2010 to 242 in 2018, a 33.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 24.27 to 16.83 over the same period. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.47% to 0.37%, indicating that the city's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased from 7 in 2010 to 4 in 2018, a 42.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.47 to 0.28. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.07% to 0.05%, suggesting that the city maintained a consistently low proportion of these crimes relative to the state.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with the highest number recorded being 4 incidents in 2010. By 2018, this had decreased to 1 incident. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.27 to 0.07. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.66% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2018, likely due to the small number of incidents causing large percentage swings.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderately strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,720 in 2013 to $52,326 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 334 to 292. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2025, Greensburg could see a further reduction in property crimes. Total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 250-270 incidents annually, with burglaries potentially dropping to 35-40 cases, larceny-theft to 210-220 cases, and motor vehicle theft remaining stable at 3-5 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Greensburg has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2018. This improvement, coupled with the correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates, suggests a strengthening community fabric and improving quality of life for residents. As the city continues to address economic and social factors, it is well-positioned to maintain or further improve its property crime statistics in the coming years.
