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Property Crime Decline in Fulton, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fulton, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 54 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022, representing a 72.2% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 4,558 in 2010 to 4,397 in 2022, a 3.5% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show significant variability. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which peaked at 29 in 2016 before dramatically decreasing to just 2 in 2022. This represents an 85.7% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.07 in 2010 to 0.45 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.08% in 2016 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local security measures or changing criminal patterns within the city.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, decreasing from 37 in 2010 to 13 in 2022, a 64.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 8.12 in 2010 to 2.96 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% from 2010 to 2019, before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This consistent decrease in larceny-theft cases indicates improved property protection or potentially changing socioeconomic factors within the community.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more erratic. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 10 in 2019 before dropping to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.66 in 2010 to 2.38 in 2019, then fell to 0 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts reached a high of 0.07% in 2019 before dropping to 0% in 2022. This volatile trend might reflect changes in local law enforcement strategies or shifts in criminal activities.
Arson incidents in the city were extremely rare, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.08% of state arson cases that year. The absence of arson cases in other years suggests that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and the city's racial composition. As the white population percentage remained consistently high (97% in 2022), property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $50,701 in 2013 to $60,700 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Fulton are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes reduce further, potentially reaching single digits annually. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are projected to stabilize at very low levels, while motor vehicle theft may remain near zero or experience only sporadic incidents.
In summary, Fulton has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The consistent decrease in various types of property crimes, coupled with stable demographic factors and increasing median income, paints a picture of a community that has become safer and more economically secure. These trends, if maintained, suggest a positive outlook for the city's safety and security in the coming years.
