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Property Crime Decline in East St. Louis: A Decade of Transformation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East St. Louis, Illinois, a city with a rich history along the Mississippi River, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 83.5%, from 2,516 to 415 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 4.3%, from 27,355 to 26,183 residents, indicating that the reduction in crime outpaced the population decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 1,091 burglaries, which dropped to 169 in 2019, representing an 84.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 39.9 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 6.5 per 1,000 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 2.02% in 2010 to 0.69% in 2019, suggesting a significant improvement in burglary prevention relative to the rest of Illinois.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a marked reduction. In 2010, there were 781 reported cases, which declined to 139 in 2019, a decrease of 82.2%. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 28.6 in 2010 to 5.3 in 2019. Moreover, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures fell dramatically from 0.46% to 0.10% over the same period, indicating a substantial improvement in this category of property crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city experienced a similar downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 644 in 2010 to 107 in 2019, a reduction of 83.4%. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 23.5 to 4.1 during this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also declined from 2.63% to 0.71%, showing progress in addressing this specific crime type.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but ultimately decreased. In 2010, there were 58 reported arsons, which reduced to 7 in 2019, marking an 87.9% decrease. The arson rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.1 to 0.3. The city's contribution to state arson figures decreased from 5.56% to 0.68%, indicating significant improvement in arson prevention and control.
A strong correlation is observed between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $18,965 in 2013 to $26,699 in 2019, property crimes decreased substantially. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the increase in homeownership rates and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 46% in 2013 to 47% in 2019, coinciding with the decline in crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the existing trends, it is forecasted that property crime rates will continue to decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglaries are expected to reduce by approximately 50% from 2019 levels, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft may decrease by 40-45%. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but may fluctuate due to their already small numbers.
In conclusion, East St. Louis has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson, coupled with improvements in median income and homeownership rates, suggest a positive transformation in the city's safety and economic conditions. If these trends continue as predicted, the city could see further enhancements in public safety and quality of life for its residents in the coming years.
