Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While there was an overall increase from 62 cases in 2010 to 73 in 2022, the trend was not linear. The number peaked at 135 in 2015 before declining. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 2.8 in 2010 to 3.1 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.59% in 2010 to a high of 1.79% in 2015, before decreasing to 0.41% in 2022. This indicates that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, recent years have seen improvements relative to state figures.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, fluctuating between 0 and 6 cases annually. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.27. The city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 0.82% in 2013, ending at 0.75% in 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but the data suggests arson is not a major concern for the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $43,376 in 2013 to $47,546 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,151 to 477. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the slight increase in homeownership rates, which rose from 56% in 2013 to 60% in 2022.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), East Ridge could see total property crimes decrease further to approximately 350-400 cases annually. Burglaries might stabilize around 50-60 cases per year, larceny-theft could reduce to about 250-300 cases, and motor vehicle theft might fluctuate between 60-70 cases annually.

In summary, East Ridge has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The improvements in economic indicators like median income and homeownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends. While challenges remain, especially in motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with continued potential for crime reduction in the coming years.