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Property Crime Decline in Dover, NH: A Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dover, New Hampshire, a city with a rich history dating back to the early colonial period, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Dover decreased by 30.18%, from 487 to 340 incidents. This significant reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 10.64%, from 29,689 to 32,849 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 58 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, marking a 74.14% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 1.95 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.46 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, Dover's share of state burglaries increased from 2.42% in 2010 to 2.71% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of New Hampshire.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Dover, also experienced a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 420 in 2010 to 308 in 2022, a 26.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.15 in 2010 to 9.38 in 2022. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 3.99% to 4.49% over this period, indicating that Dover's reduction in larceny-theft was less pronounced compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a fluctuating pattern but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 9 reported cases, which rose to 17 in 2022, an 88.89% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. Dover's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 2.28% to 3.17%, suggesting a faster growth in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson cases in Dover have remained relatively low but variable. The number of incidents fluctuated between 1 and 14 cases per year, with 2 reported in both 2010 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained stable at around 0.06. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.16% in 2010 to 3.17% in 2022, indicating a higher concentration of arson incidents in Dover relative to the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in Dover increased from $71,383 in 2013 to $83,497 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime incidence. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership rates from 50% in 2013 to 52% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher community stability contributes to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson cases are projected to remain low but unpredictable due to their sporadic nature.
In summary, Dover has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories. This improvement, occurring alongside population growth and increasing median income, suggests effective crime prevention strategies and community engagement. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state-wide property crimes in certain categories indicate areas that may require focused attention in the coming years to maintain and improve upon the overall positive trends in community safety.
