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Property Crime Decline in De Soto, Missouri: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
De Soto, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 199 incidents in 2010 to 118 in 2019, representing a 40.7% decrease. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 11,307 in 2010 to 10,736 in 2019, a 5% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decrease over time. In 2010, there were 27 burglaries reported, which dropped to 11 by 2019, a 59.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.39 in 2010 to 1.02 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.08% in 2010, peaking at 0.15% in 2011, and settling at 0.07% by 2019. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also saw a significant decline. Incidents dropped from 160 in 2010 to 106 in 2019, a 33.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 14.15 to 9.87 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.14% and 0.24% throughout the decade. This consistent reduction in larceny-theft cases indicates a positive trend in overall community safety and property protection.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed considerable volatility but an overall decreasing trend. From 12 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 20 in 2012 before dropping to just 1 incident in 2019. This represents a dramatic 91.7% decrease over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.06 in 2010 to 0.09 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied widely, from a high of 0.15% in 2012 to a low of 0.01% in 2019, suggesting local factors may have played a significant role in this crime category's fluctuation.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. The highest number of incidents was 4 in 2011, representing 0.42% of state arson cases that year. However, most years saw either zero or one incident, with no clear trend discernible due to the low numbers. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.36 (in 2011).
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $47,092 in 2013 to $55,072 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 313 to 118 over the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decline over the next five years (up to 2029). Total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-30%, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common but also showing the most significant reduction. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are expected to stabilize at their current low levels, while arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and rare.
In summary, De Soto has demonstrated a commendable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions across all categories. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that continued economic development could further enhance community safety. These trends position the city favorably for sustained low crime rates in the coming years, contributing to an improved quality of life for its residents.
