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Property Crime Decline in Dayton, Kentucky: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dayton, Kentucky, a small city of just 1.3 square miles along the Ohio River, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 131 to 47, representing a 64.12% reduction. During this same period, the population showed a modest increase of 4.56%, growing from 5,314 to 5,556 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 35 burglaries, which peaked at 108 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to just 3 in 2022. This represents a 91.43% reduction from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.59 in 2010 to 0.54 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.57% in 2012 before dropping to 0.06% in 2022. This substantial decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a declining trend. From 88 cases in 2010, the number rose to 176 in 2012 before consistently falling to 38 in 2022, a 56.82% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.56 in 2010 to 6.84 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.08% and 0.30%, ending at 0.15% in 2022. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security and potentially increased community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a more volatile pattern. Starting with 8 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 15 in 2014 before declining to 6 in 2022, representing a 25% decrease overall. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 1.51 in 2010 to 1.08 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.31% in 2018 before settling at 0.14% in 2022. This suggests that while improvements have been made, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue requiring ongoing attention.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with a maximum of 2 incidents reported in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Since 2016, no arson cases have been reported, indicating a complete elimination of this crime type in recent years. The city's share of state arson cases peaked at 0.66% in 2014 but has since dropped to 0% from 2016 onwards. This positive trend suggests effective fire prevention and investigation measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $40,021 in 2013 to $52,884 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 239 to 47. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 60% in 2013 to 63% in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in the city could further decrease by approximately 20-25%. This would bring the total number of property crimes to around 35-38 annually. Burglaries might become even rarer, potentially dropping to 1-2 cases per year. Larceny-theft could see a continued gradual decline to around 25-30 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft might stabilize at 4-5 cases per year.
In conclusion, Dayton has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny-theft, and the elimination of arson cases reflect positively on the city's public safety efforts. The correlation between rising incomes, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates suggests a strengthening community fabric. If these trends continue as predicted, Dayton is poised to become an even safer place to live in the coming years, potentially serving as a model for small-city crime reduction strategies.
