Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile but ultimately showed improvement. In 2010, there were 167 incidents, which decreased to 134 in 2022, a 19.8% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly, from 2.11 to 1.22, a 42.2% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 1.58% in 2010, dropping to 0.77% in 2018, and then rising to 0.92% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while overall numbers have improved, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent challenge.

Arson cases in the city have shown a general downward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. The number of incidents decreased from 22 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 77.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.28 to 0.05, an 82.1% decrease. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied significantly, from a high of 2.16% in 2010 to a low of 0.2% in 2018, before settling at 0.57% in 2022. This volatility in percentages, despite the overall decrease in incidents, suggests that arson remains an unpredictable crime category requiring continued vigilance.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. The significant decrease in property crimes coincided with a substantial increase in median income, from $55,551 in 2013 to $77,573 in 2022, a 39.6% rise. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 62% in 2013 to 73% in 2021, before dropping slightly to 62% in 2022. These trends suggest that improved economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on current trends, total property crimes could potentially decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, reaching approximately 860-920 incidents annually. However, this projection assumes consistent economic growth and continued effectiveness of crime prevention strategies.

In summary, Concord has made remarkable strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories, outpacing its rapid population growth. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed more variable patterns. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, paint a picture of a city successfully managing the challenges of urban growth while enhancing public safety. As Concord continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trajectories will be crucial for sustaining its reputation as an increasingly safe and prosperous community.