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Property Crime Decline in Collinsville, Alabama: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Collinsville, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 83 to 23, marking a 72.3% reduction. This substantial decline occurred alongside a slight population increase of 1.6%, from 4,090 in 2010 to 4,156 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 4 in 2022, representing an 82.6% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.62 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.96 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It started at 0.1% in 2010, dropped to 0.02% in 2021, but then rose slightly to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant progress in reducing burglaries, its improvement relative to the state has been somewhat inconsistent.
Larceny-theft incidents also experienced a substantial decline. The number of reported cases fell from 54 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, a 72.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 13.2 in 2010 to 3.61 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft crimes diminished from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed less consistent patterns. The number of thefts remained relatively stable, with 6 reported in 2010 and 4 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population, the rate slightly decreased from 1.47 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.96 per 1,000 in 2022. Notably, despite the decrease in actual incidents, the city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts dropped from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that reductions in this crime category may have been more pronounced elsewhere in the state.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two years (2011 and 2021) reporting zero incidents. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The reduction in property crimes coincided with a slight increase in median income, from $26,878 in 2013 to $33,768 in 2022. This suggests a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, ranging from 64% to 70% between 2013 and 2022, which may have contributed to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trajectory, total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 15-20 incidents per year by 2029. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors could influence future crime rates.
In summary, Collinsville has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement has occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth and increasing median income. The city's share of state property crimes has generally decreased, indicating that its crime reduction efforts have been more effective than the state average in several categories. These trends paint a picture of a community that has made significant strides in enhancing public safety and reducing property-related offenses.
