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Property Crime Decline in Caryville, Tennessee: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Caryville, located in Tennessee, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 118 to 38, representing a 67.8% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 6,588 to 7,450, an increase of 13.1%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a dramatic decline. In 2010, there were 20 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 5 in 2022, marking a 75% decrease. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.03 in 2010 to 0.67 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2016 before declining to 0.04% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries, outpacing population growth, suggests improved security measures or law enforcement strategies.
Larceny theft also saw a significant decrease over the years. In 2010, 88 larceny thefts were reported, compared to 27 in 2022, a 69.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 13.36 in 2010 to 3.62 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.03-0.04% in recent years. This consistent downward trend in larceny theft rates, even as the population grew, indicates effective crime prevention efforts.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 10 reported cases, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 40% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.52 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, peaking at 0.16% in 2016 before dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This volatility suggests that while overall numbers have decreased, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue requiring ongoing attention.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only a few reported cases over the years, with the highest being 2 cases in 2013, representing 0.27% of state arsons. Since 2015, no arson cases have been reported, indicating effective fire prevention and investigation measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $36,324 in 2013 to $48,467 in 2022, property crime rates consistently declined. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. By 2029, five years from now, we project the total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 25-30 incidents per year, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Caryville has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft rates. The inverse correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates suggests that economic development may play a crucial role in crime reduction. These trends paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues, potentially through a combination of economic growth, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.
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