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Property Crime Decline in Campbell, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Campbell, Missouri, a small urban area of 1.4 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. The total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 92 in 2011 to 15 in 2022, representing an 83.7% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 3,383 in 2011 to 2,797 in 2022, a 17.3% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline. In 2011, there were 19 burglaries, which dropped to just 1 in 2022, a 94.7% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.62 per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 0.36 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.11% in 2012 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a marked decrease. From 64 cases in 2011, the number dropped to 13 in 2022, a 79.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 18.92 in 2011 to 4.65 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively low, hovering around 0.06% in the early 2010s before dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This trend indicates a significant improvement in preventing petty theft and shoplifting within the community.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the observed period. From 9 incidents in 2011, it decreased to 1 in 2022, an 88.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.66 in 2011 to 0.36 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has consistently been low, peaking at 0.07% in 2011 and dropping to 0% in 2022. This suggests that vehicle security measures or targeted policing strategies may have been effective in curbing this type of crime.
Arson cases in Campbell have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only two reported incidents: one in 2011 and another in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.30 per 1,000 residents in 2011 and 0.36 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases jumped from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.16% in 2022, despite the low absolute numbers. While these figures are too low to indicate a trend, they suggest that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and the reduction in property crimes. As the population density decreased from 2,408 per square mile in 2011 to 1,991 in 2022, overall property crime incidents also fell. Additionally, the rise in median income from $25,804 in 2013 to $36,498 in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that property crime rates will continue to decrease over the next five years, reaching approximately 10 total incidents by 2029. This forecast assumes that current socio-economic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Campbell has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes across all categories over the past decade, coinciding with population decline and economic improvements. The most dramatic decreases were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson remain relatively rare occurrences. These trends suggest a generally improving safety profile for the city, potentially enhancing its appeal for residents and businesses alike.
