Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively stable, with a slight increase from 10 incidents in 2010 to 11 in 2019. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 0.71 to 0.84. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.09% to 1.02%, suggesting that while the city maintained relatively steady rates, the state experienced a more significant decrease in motor vehicle thefts.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed no clear trend. The number of arsons remained low, ranging from 1 to 7 incidents annually. The rate per 1,000 residents varied between 0.08 and 0.52. The city's share of state arsons increased from 0.33% in 2010 to 1.80% in 2019, indicating that arson rates decreased more rapidly at the state level than within the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $29,263 in 2013 to $35,527 in 2019, total property crimes decreased from 602 in 2010 to 229 in 2019. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it is projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease by an additional 20-30% from 2019 levels. This would bring the total property crime incidents to approximately 160-183 per year.

In summary, Butler has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred despite a declining population, suggesting improved security measures or community initiatives may be contributing factors. The increase in the city's share of state crime percentages for various categories indicates that while the city has made progress, its improvements have not kept pace with state-wide reductions in some areas. The correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and community safety initiatives will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.