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Property Crime Decline in Buffalo, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Buffalo, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 5,485 in 2022, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. The total number of property crimes decreased from 143 in 2010 to 45 in 2022, marking a 68.5% reduction. This substantial decline occurred alongside a slight population decrease of 1.3% from 5,557 in 2010 to 5,485 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 35 burglaries, which decreased to just 5 in 2022, representing an 85.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.3 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, peaking at 0.17% in 2017 before declining to 0.04% in 2022. This significant decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated a declining trend. The number of larceny-thefts dropped from 108 in 2010 to 38 in 2022, a 64.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 19.4 in 2010 to 6.9 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.09% to 0.11% for most of the period, before decreasing to 0.05% in 2022. This consistent reduction in larceny-theft cases indicates a general improvement in property security and possibly increased community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The city reported no motor vehicle thefts in 2010 and 2012, but saw a peak of 16 incidents in 2018. By 2022, this number had decreased to 2. The rate per 1,000 residents reached a high of 3.1 in 2018 before dropping to 0.4 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2018, then decreased to 0.01% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that while motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem, it remains an area requiring ongoing attention.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only three reported incidents in 2010 and one in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents for arson never exceeded 0.54 (in 2010). The city's contribution to state arson cases peaked at 0.29% in 2010 but has since remained at 0% for most years. The infrequency of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes appears to coincide with a decrease in median income, which fell from $42,731 in 2013 to $31,681 in 2022. This unexpected correlation suggests that factors other than economic conditions may be influencing crime rates in the city. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units decreased from 73% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, which typically might be associated with increased property crime. However, the opposite trend is observed, indicating that community factors beyond homeownership are contributing to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued decline over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-30%, reaching approximately 30-35 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current crime prevention strategies and community dynamics remain consistent.
In summary, Buffalo has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates. The city's contribution to state-level property crimes has generally decreased across all categories. These positive trends have occurred despite declining median income and homeownership rates, suggesting that effective local strategies and community engagement may be key factors in reducing property crime. As the city moves forward, maintaining and adapting these successful approaches will be crucial in sustaining the downward trend in property crime rates.
