Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable in absolute numbers but has decreased when accounting for population changes. There were 10 incidents in 2010 and 4 in 2022, representing a 60% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.67 in 2010 to 0.71 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated over the years, peaking at 0.23% in 2010-2012 before declining to 0.10% in 2022, suggesting that the city's improvements in this category were generally in line with state trends.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The highest number of arsons reported was 3 in 2013, with several years reporting no incidents. Due to the low numbers, the arson rate per 1,000 residents and the city's share of state arsons have shown significant variability, making it difficult to discern clear trends.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $56,520 in 2013 to $65,683 in 2022, property crimes decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing a general downward trend over the years.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we might expect total property crimes to decrease by an additional 15-20% by 2029, potentially reaching around 55-60 incidents per year. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain relatively stable.

In summary, Bellevue has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with substantial decreases across all categories, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements have outpaced population decline, resulting in lower crime rates per capita. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in crime reduction. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the community's safety and quality of life.