Motor vehicle theft rates fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 14 reported cases, which decreased to 11 in 2022, a 21.43% reduction. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.83 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2022, due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts remained low, consistently at 0.01% for most years. This trend suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, it has not significantly worsened relative to the population change.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. In 2010, there were 10 reported cases, which decreased to 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.59 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.16% in 2010 and dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. This trend indicates a significant improvement in fire safety or arson prevention measures in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $36,643 in 2013 to $47,823 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.

Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates. As population density decreased from 862 people per square mile in 2010 to 758 in 2022, property crime rates also generally declined. This could indicate that lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend. Based on historical data and current trends, it is estimated that by 2029, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 15-20% from 2022 levels. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously, as unforeseen factors could influence crime rates.

In summary, Avenal has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2022, despite population fluctuations. The most notable improvements were seen in burglary and larceny-theft rates. These positive trends, coupled with increasing median income and decreasing population density, suggest that the city has made substantial progress in improving public safety and reducing property crimes. As Avenal continues to evolve, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for the community's long-term safety and well-being.