Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations but an overall decrease. From 7 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 3 in 2022, a 57.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.70 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.02% and 0.12% over the years. This trend suggests that despite population growth, the city has managed to maintain relatively low rates of motor vehicle theft.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows zero cases in most years, with occasional single incidents reported in 2013, 2016, and 2018. The highest number of arson cases was 2 in 2021. Given the rarity of these events, it's difficult to establish a clear trend or rate per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson statistics has ranged from 0% to 0.33%, indicating that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $80,820 in 2013 to $82,410 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, the relatively stable and high percentage of owner-occupied housing (ranging from 82% to 86%) correlates with the declining property crime rates, suggesting that home ownership may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city could potentially decrease further by 15-20%. This forecast assumes continued population growth and stable economic conditions.

In summary, Atoka has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics over the past decade, with significant reductions across all categories despite population growth. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining crime rates, coupled with high home ownership, suggests a trend towards increased community stability and safety. These positive trends position the city favorably for continued low crime rates in the coming years, reflecting well on local law enforcement efforts and community engagement in crime prevention.