Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall decreasing trend. From 15 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 10 in 2022, a 33.33% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.59 to 0.97. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable at 0.03% in 2010 and 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts, the improvement is roughly in line with state-wide trends.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There were no reported arsons in most years, with only one case each reported in 2012 and 2020. This makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or calculate meaningful rates per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson cases has remained negligible, fluctuating between 0% and 0.05% when incidents occurred.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 755 people per square mile in 2010 to 821 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved security or community surveillance. Additionally, the median income rose from $46,675 in 2013 to $57,646 in 2022, potentially indicating improved economic conditions that could contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, we can forecast property crime rates for the next five years (up to 2029). Assuming the current trends continue, we might expect total property crimes to further decrease to around 50-60 incidents annually, burglaries to stabilize at 10-12 cases per year, larceny-theft to continue its downward trend, possibly reaching 40-45 incidents annually, motor vehicle theft to remain relatively stable at 8-10 cases per year, and arson to remain a rare occurrence with 0-1 incidents annually.

In conclusion, Atlanta has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with stable or decreasing rates in motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.