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Property Crime Decline in Ashland, Ohio: A Decade of Positive Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ashland, located in Ohio, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 578 to 260, representing a 55% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 25,528 to 23,742, a 7% decrease.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial downward trend. In 2010, there were 68 burglaries, which dropped to 24 in 2022, marking a 65% decrease. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.66 in 2010 to 1.01 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.24% in 2015 before settling at 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it remained relatively consistent with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant reduction. In 2010, there were 500 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 230 in 2022, a 54% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 19.59 in 2010 to 9.69 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.33% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this area outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 10 incidents, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 40% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.39 in 2010 to 0.25 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.10% in 2014 before dropping to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting that the city has maintained better control over this crime compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with some years reporting no incidents. In 2010, there were 2 arson cases, and in 2022, there was 1 case. The rate per 1,000 residents remained low, at 0.08 in 2010 and 0.04 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating that arson remains a concern despite low numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $48,739 in 2013 to $55,052 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 63% in 2018 to 68% in 2022 coincides with a reduction in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between stable housing and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Ashland could see a further 20-25% reduction in overall property crimes if current trends continue. This would bring the total number of property crimes to approximately 195-208 annually.
In summary, Ashland has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing population decline. The improvements in burglary and larceny-theft rates are particularly noteworthy. These positive trends, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, suggest a generally improving quality of life for residents. However, ongoing vigilance will be necessary to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
