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Poteet, Texas: Violent Crime Trends Show Overall Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Poteet, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its total violent crime incidents and population. The total number of violent crimes peaked at 13 incidents in 2012, 2013, and 2014, before declining to 9 incidents in 2022. This represents a 10% decrease in violent crime over the 12-year period. Concurrently, the population declined from 3,582 in 2010 to 3,177 in 2022, a decrease of 11.3%.
The murder rate in Poteet has shown variability over the years. From 2010 to 2011, there were no reported murders. The city saw its first murder in 2012, representing 0.11% of the state's total murders that year. This equated to a rate of 0.28 murders per 1,000 people. The murder rate fluctuated in subsequent years, with single incidents reported in 2014, 2015, 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2022, the murder rate was 0.31 per 1,000 people, and it accounted for 0.06% of the state's murders. This trend suggests that while murders remain rare events in the city, their occurrence has become slightly more frequent relative to the population size.
Rape incidents in Poteet have shown a sporadic pattern. The first reported rapes in the dataset occurred in 2014, with 2 incidents, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This equated to a rate of 0.53 rapes per 1,000 people. The number of reported rapes fluctuated between 0 and 2 incidents per year from 2014 to 2020, with no reported cases in 2021 and 2022. The highest rate was observed in 2020, with 0.59 rapes per 1,000 people. The inconsistent nature of these incidents makes it challenging to discern a clear trend, but it's notable that the city has seen periods without any reported rapes.
Robbery trends in Poteet have been relatively low and inconsistent. The highest number of robberies (3) was reported in 2012, representing 0.01% of the state's total and a rate of 0.84 robberies per 1,000 people. Since then, the numbers have fluctuated between 0 and 1 incident per year. In 2022, there were no reported robberies. The overall trend suggests a decrease in robbery incidents over time, with the rate per 1,000 people dropping from its peak in 2012 to zero in recent years.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Poteet. The number of incidents peaked at 12 in 2011, representing a rate of 3.4 assaults per 1,000 people and 0.02% of the state's total. There has been a general downward trend since then, with some fluctuations. In 2022, there were 8 aggravated assaults, equating to 2.52 per 1,000 people and 0.01% of the state's total. This represents a 33.3% decrease in aggravated assaults from 2011 to 2022, despite some year-to-year variations.
A notable correlation exists between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,067 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,833 in 2022, there was a corresponding overall decrease in violent crime incidents. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median rent and decreasing violent crime. The median rent increased from $450 in 2013 to $896 in 2022, while violent crime generally trended downward during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Poteet may see a further reduction in violent crime incidents. The model suggests a potential decrease to around 7 total violent crimes per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common form of violent crime.
In conclusion, Poteet has experienced an overall decrease in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, despite some fluctuations. This trend has occurred alongside a declining population and increasing median rent. While murder and rape incidents have remained relatively rare, they have shown some variability. Robbery rates have decreased, and aggravated assault, while still the most common violent crime, has shown a general downward trend. These findings suggest that Poteet has made progress in reducing violent crime, but continued vigilance and community-based initiatives may be necessary to maintain and further improve public safety.
