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Port Orange, Florida: Declining Violent Crime Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Port Orange, located in Florida, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 71.57%, from 102 to 29 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 11.18%, from 58,809 to 65,382 residents.
The murder rate in the city has fluctuated over the years but remained relatively low. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.37% of the state's total. This figure remained consistent until 2019, when it dropped to zero. However, in 2022, there was a significant spike to 5 murders, accounting for 2.02% of the state's total. This increase is particularly notable when considering the population trends. The murder rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.034 in 2010 to 0.076 in 2022, a 123.53% increase. This sudden rise in murders and the city's share of state crime warrants attention and further investigation into potential underlying causes.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. The city reported 2 cases in 2010, dropped to zero in 2013 and 2014, and then fluctuated between 0 and 3 cases annually. In 2022, there were 2 reported rapes, representing 0.12% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.034 in 2010 to 0.031 in 2022, a 9.15% reduction. This suggests that while the absolute number of rapes has remained relatively stable, the rate has marginally improved relative to population growth.
Robbery incidents have shown a general declining trend. In 2010, there were 19 robberies, which decreased to 4 in 2022, representing a 78.95% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.323 in 2010 to 0.061 in 2022, an 81.08% decrease. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.14% over the years. This significant decrease in robberies, both in absolute numbers and relative to population, indicates an improvement in this aspect of public safety.
Aggravated assaults have also shown a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 79 cases, which decreased to 18 in 2022, a 77.22% reduction. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.343 in 2010 to 0.275 in 2022, a 79.51% decrease. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has fluctuated between 0.06% and 0.21% over the years. This substantial decrease in aggravated assaults suggests an overall improvement in violent crime rates within the city.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship appears between the declining violent crime rates and the city's racial composition. As the white population percentage decreased from 89% in 2013 to 85% in 2022, there was a concurrent decrease in violent crimes. This correlation doesn't imply causation but may reflect changing demographics and potentially evolving community dynamics.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight increase in violent crime rates. If current trends continue, the city might expect to see the total number of violent crimes remain between 25 to 35 annually, with potential fluctuations in specific categories like murder, which saw an anomalous increase in 2022.
In summary, Port Orange has experienced a significant overall reduction in violent crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in robberies and aggravated assaults. However, the recent spike in murders in 2022 presents a concern that contrasts with the generally positive trends. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these improved crime rates while addressing the recent uptick in murders will be crucial for ensuring public safety and community well-being.
