Motor vehicle theft in Pontiac exhibited a more volatile pattern but ultimately showed improvement. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 8 in 2013 before returning to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively low throughout, starting and ending at 0.22 despite fluctuations. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2019, before returning to 0.01% in 2022, indicating that this crime category remained a minor concern relative to state figures.

Arson cases in Pontiac were sporadic and low in number. From no reported cases in 2010, there were peaks of 4 cases in 2014 and 2 cases in 2016, before settling at 1 case in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.3. The city's contribution to state arson figures fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.33% in 2011 before dropping to 0.15% in 2022, suggesting that while arson remains rare, it can have an outsized impact on state percentages due to low overall numbers.

Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income in Pontiac. As the median income rose from $53,728 in 2013 to $58,229 in 2022, total property crimes decreased by 73.7%. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the slight decrease in homeownership (from 71% in 2013 to 64% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries. This could indicate that factors beyond homeownership, such as community policing or improved security measures, played a more significant role in crime reduction.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Pontiac could see further reductions in property crime. Total property crimes might decrease to around 60-70 incidents annually, with burglaries potentially dropping to single digits. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant property crime but could fall to approximately 50-60 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 incidents annually each.

In summary, Pontiac has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has made substantial strides in enhancing public safety. These positive trends, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of improving economic indicators, suggest a promising outlook for the city's future safety and quality of life.